Sadly, I'm afraid I was correct, although it's not as bad as I'd feared. The writers are doing some good things with the characters, letting Chuck grow into his role as a spy, and also giving Morgan some surprising growth.
So why do I say it has jumped the shark? Basically because at the end of last season, everything had changed. Chuck was out of the Buy More and had mad Matrixy Intersect skillz, Morgan had left to pursue his dream of being a chef, Ellie and Awesome were married and moving on with their lives. And if the show had continued along those lines, it might have been good or bad, but it wouldn't really have felt like Chuck anymore.
But that doesn't mean I prefer what they've done, which is the same thing that shows like Smallville have done in the past after incredible finales that changed everything: had a season opener that takes pretty much everything and resets it to the status quo. Chuck is suddenly back at the Buy More, his Intersect skills as unpredictable as his previous flashes. Sarah and Casey are back to their old roles as his handlers. Morgan has returned, and Ellie and Awesome, although they've moved out, are living right next door and still just as much a part of the show as before.
and although it seemed as if they'd killed off Awesome last week, it was just a feint, and so as dramatic as last week's ending was, it's all undone now and we're back to the same old same old. And that gets tiresome and frustrating after a while. I won't stop watching the show, because I like the humor and the cast, especially Zachary Levi and Adam Baldwin.
But I used to watch because I wanted to see where these characters were going to go, and now I know where they're going.